Julio L. Ortiz

Senior Economist, International Finance Division

Federal Reserve Board

Welcome! I am a senior economist in the International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board.

My research interests are in macroeconomics with a focus on monetary policy, firm investment, and expectation formation.

Interests

Macroeconomics
Monetary policy
Firm investment
Expectation formation

Education

Ph.D. Economics , 2021
Boston University
M.A. Political Economy, 2019
Boston University
B.S. Economics and International Affairs, 2013
George Washington University

Publications

Julio L. Ortiz (2026). Spread Too Thin: The Impact of Lean Inventories. Accepted, Journal of Monetary Economics.

Working paper Appendix VOX EU

Julio L. Ortiz, Constantin Bürgi (2026). Overreaction Through Anchoring. International Journal of Forecasting, 42(2), 512-526.

Published version Supplementary materials Replication files

Thiago R.T. Ferreira, Nils Gornemann, Julio L. Ortiz (2025). Household Excess Savings and the Transmission of Monetary Policy. International Journal of Central Banking, 21(2), 1-36.

Published version Working paper

Julio L. Ortiz (2024). Misspecified Expectations Among Professional Forecasters. Forthcoming, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Published version Working paper Online Appendix

Working Papers

Neil Mehrotra, Hyunseung Oh, Julio L. Ortiz (2025). Retail inventories and inflation dynamics: The price margin channel.

Working paper

Policy Papers

Inflation's Shared DNA: Regional and Global Factors in Post-Pandemic Core Inflation

with Daniel O. Beltran

Daniel O. Beltran, Julio L. Ortiz

Sep 19, 2025

Reviews of Foreign Central Banks' Monetary Policy Frameworks: Approaches, Issues, and Outcomes

with Grey Gordon and Benjamin Silk

Grey Gordon, Julio Ortiz, Benjamin Silk

Aug 30, 2025

An update on Excess Savings in Selected Advanced Economies

with François de Soyres and Dylan Moore

François de Soyres, Dylan Moore, Julio L. Ortiz

Dec 20, 2023

Accumulated Savings During the Pandemic: An International Comparison with Historical Perspective