Updates to survey expectations exhibit an offsetting pattern that is incompatible with standard theories of belief formation. We rationalize this in a model featuring long-run inattention and a short-run-to-long-run adding up constraint. Our model offers a new explanation for observed overreactions in expectations. Draft will be uploaded soon.

Lean inventory management can be a profitable strategy, but it renders the economy more vulnerable to unanticipated shocks. This paper quantifies the tradeoff in a structurally estimated heterogeneous firms model.

Forecast error predictability is used to motivate departures from full information rational expectations. I offer an additional fact that can serve to further distinguish between models of belief formation.